In part 3 of his book, How Not to Be Wrong, Jordan Ellenberg begins to describe the concept of expected value by using the lottery as his guide. Through algebraic expressions and a fair amount of visuals and graphs, Ellenberg proves the best time to purchase a lottery ticket while simultaneously introducing the notion that probability and risk aren't the same. While percentages and probable outcomes play a role in the likelihood of an event occurring it's not the same percentage that calculates the potential risk accompanying each consequence.
Ellenberg goes onto say that ultimately it's unwise to claim the lottery a waste of time and energy. Is there always a good chance of winning? No. But is it fun? For $2 I'd say it's worth $2 worth of fun. He denotes that you're more likely to fail than anything, but you'll fail 100% of the time if you don't try in the first place.
- Alfonso Gastelum
This sounds so interesting! I like that the author included statistical evidence of the probabilities to show the odds of the lottery. I agree with the author that participating in the lottery is fun. Although, the probability of winning is low, but the small possibility of winning can still be fun. The risk is worth is worth it because you do miss 100% of the shots you don't take.
ReplyDeleteLottery tickets can be fun. This made me think of how my family gives out lottery tickets as prizes when playing game on Christmas Eve. No one has ever won but we all enjoy scratching away at the card in hopes that we will. I remember one time my dad pranked my aunt and gave her a fake lottery ticket so she thought she actually won, it was disappointing for her but funny for the rest of us.
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